Don't Copy Last Year's Black Friday
Oct 27, 2026"Biggest November we've ever had."
That's what they told me.
One million dollars in a month.
By December, the tax office had frozen their bank account.
They couldn't even pay for the staff Christmas party.
Every year I watch it happen. Founders have their best Black Friday ever.
And their worst February.
And right now, most of the industry is about to do it again. Same discount. Same length. Same everything. Because last year it "worked."
Did it?
Here are the five Black Friday traps that look like wins. And what we do instead.
Trap 1. Record revenue, no profit.
Let's do the maths most people never do.
A $100 product. It costs you $30 to make. $10 to ship. $3 in fees. $25 in ads to get the sale.
You keep $32.
Now go 30% off. The customer pays $70.
Your supplier didn't give you 30% off. Shipping didn't get cheaper. And ads? They're the most expensive they'll be all year. That $25 becomes $35.
You're keeping a couple of bucks. Or you're losing money on every single order.
You'd need eleven times the orders just to make the same money.
Revenue? Massive. Profit? Gone.
No profit, no party.
The fix is boring. Know your numbers before you pick the discount. What can you afford to give away, and still keep the profit you want?
We run this in Axeman in our coaching groups. I modelled 25% off for 30 days at a 25% MER. Lost money. Then 20% off, 14 days, 15% MER.
Less revenue. Highest profit of any option.
If you don't know what you can afford to discount, you're not running a sale.
You're running a raffle.
Trap 2. The pull-forward trap.
You run the sale all of November. "Black November." Feels amazing.
All you've done is take the people who were going to pay full price in December, and give them 30% off in November.
Then January's dead.
And every time you do it, you teach your customers one thing.
Wait for the sale.
The fix: Black Friday to Cyber Monday. That's it. Four days. Not four weeks.
Then keep December for full price. Gifting. Bundles. Order-by dates. That's how retail used to work, and it still does.
The scale bros will hate this. Good.
The new customer myth.
"It's fine, Black Friday brings in new customers. They'll come back."
Will they?
Open Shopify. Ask Sidekick for your AOV and your LTV. Divide the LTV by the AOV.
Say your LTV is $280 and your AOV is $150. That's 1.86.
Your average customer buys from you less than twice. Ever.
So when you discount to "acquire" them, you're not buying a customer.
You're buying one sale. At a discount.
Most of you will get a number around two or less. Run it before you believe the hype.
Trap 3. Your best customers.
Picture your Black Friday buyers as 100 people. Sixty of them already know you. They were going to buy anyway.
You can't stop them using the offer. Fine.
But don't give your VIPs an extra discount on top. "Thanks for being loyal, here's 30% off."
What nonsense.
Reward them with great product, fast delivery, and early access. A gift with purchase that costs you five bucks. Not more margin.
They don't need another 10% off. They already like you.
Trap 4. Site-wide.
I've said it before. I hate site-wide discounts for brands with a lot of SKUs.
Go into Shopify. Reports. ABC analysis.
Your Grade A products are about 80% of your revenue. They're your business.
Your Grade C is the junk. It doesn't move. And it's sitting on most of your cash.
Go 30% off everything and guess what sells? Grade A. Grade C sits there, same as always.
So flip it.
Grade A: 5 to 10% off, a bundle, or nothing.
Grade C: up to 70% off. Clear it.
Here's the bit nobody tells you. You don't reorder Grade C. That cash is yours.
Go buy the handbag. Go buy the car.
Trap 5. The February cash trap.
You sold out of Grade A. Now you have to reorder it.
Then China New Year hits. Factories shut. Your three months of cover becomes five.
Meanwhile the GST bill lands. The freight bills land. The agency wants their cut. Meta wants paying.
Your best Black Friday ever just turned into your worst February.
Every January and February my coaching business booms. This is why.
Before you set your offer, answer these five:
- What's the most I can take off and still make money?
- Can it be four days, not four weeks?
- How often do my customers actually come back?
- Am I discounting Grade C hard enough, and protecting Grade A?
- Have I planned the reorder cash for China New Year?
Can't answer all five? You're not ready to set the offer.
I broke all of this down, with the full Axeman demo, on the latest Better Call Paul.
Watch it on YouTube
Listen on Spotify
And if you want me in your numbers before Black Friday, my next cohort is open. Apply here.
Black Friday isn't the trap.
Copying last year is.
Swing the axe.
Until next week,
Paul
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